May 3, 1987, Washington DC. The Herald publishes a story about presidential candidate Gary Hart cheating on his wife with a young model. The situation escalates and, in just a couple of weeks, the pressure of the voters’ opinion forces Hart to drop out of the race. When he re-enters it a couple months after, he fails miserably, having lost most of his supporters.
During the US’ political history, many such scandals have shaped elections in irreversible ways, showing how even the simplest gossip can cost a whole race.
Today, after months of campaigning for the 2024 election, we can’t say this race wasn’t entertaining. A candidate got convicted of 34 felony counts. His own running mate compared him to Hitler. One of his guests at his biggest rally called the country of origin of some of his most important Latino supporters “an island of garbage”. On the other side, the original candidate showed clear signs of dementia on stage. His replacement has had a key role in one of the most controversial migration periods ever, and keeps getting attacked for it.
But the voters’ opinions just didn’t seem to be affected.
The election depended on a few percent of undecided ones, but both candidates maintained a solid voting base that just doesn’t seem to care about any scandals, even though they’re bombarded with criticism on both sides in any media, on TV or online.
Polls and prediction models have been very consistent in predicting a very close race, since the beginning. Many people thought the debates would change them. Or the instability in the Democratic Party’s leadership. Or Trump’s never ending trials and legal problems. Or when the media told the country about how he asked 1 billion dollars from big oil companies in exchange for his support to the industry once in office.
But in the end, one week from election day the polls were at the same point they were at the beginning of the race: 538’s prediction model predicted the same result as it did on its first day in late July, CBS polls had only shifted one percent in total since early June and no swing state had clearly chosen its side yet, after millions were spent by both parties to get them on their side.
Finally, Trump won by flipping many important counties and, therefore, all swing states. His performance in terms of electoral college votes was absolutely dominant, but if we look at nominal votes it still comes down to a few percentage points won here and there, just as 4 years ago, only this time it’s in favor of the Republican side.
What is it going to be like in 4 years? Will a second Trump term change this status quo, or just extremize it even more? It’s hard to predict, but one thing is clear: compared to 4 years ago, the Maga base seems
It’s almost as if US politics were so polarized that it became almost impossible for most voters to change sides.
The Grad Media 
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